The California Air Resources Board (CARB) unanimously approved its 2022 Scoping Plan for Achieving Carbon Neutrality by 2045. The five-year Scoping Plan aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2045 by reducing oil demand by 94%, reducing air pollution by 71%, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 85% by 2045. The scoping plan is the most aggressive approach to reach carbon neutrality by any jurisdiction in the world. (see California’s Final 2022 Scoping Plan Adds New Climate Strategies.)
The final Scoping Plan includes a number of changes from the May draft scoping plan, which outlined the state’s commitment to reduce oil use by 91 percent. The final plan represents a more ambitious climate agenda and includes the targets set in a number of climate and energy bills Governor Gavin Newsom signed into law in September.
The bills implemented an ambitious climate policy that sets a more aggressive net-zero GHG emissions target, sets interim goals on the course to achieve 100% renewable energy by 2045, establishes a carbon removal and storage program, and establishes natural carbon removal targets. (see California Implements More Ambitious Climate Agenda.)
Increased Electrification
The plan calls for increased electrification of the state’s energy demand, including increased use of zero-emissions vehicles (ZEVs), including for passenger and freight trains and electric appliances in new and existing buildings. It also calls for increased green hydrogen and biomethane for energy uses that are difficult to electrify.
Carbon Capture and Storage
The final plan raised some controversy, as it relies on carbon capture and storage to address the remaining 15 percent of greenhouse gas emissions that will remain in 2045. This includes actions to capture and store carbon through the state’s natural and working lands.
Accelerated GHG Reduction Targets
The final modeling for the Scoping Plan projects a 48% reduction of GHG emissions below 1990 levels in 2030, surpassing the minimum statutory emissions reduction goal of 40% below 1990 levels in 2030. The updated modeling includes no new fossil gas capacity in the electricity sector and 20 gigawatts of offshore wind capacity by 2045.